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Sunday
Nov122017

RS 197 - Doug Hubbard on “Why people think some things can’t be quantified (and why they’re wrong)”

Release date: November 12th, 2017

Doug Hubbard

In this episode Julia talks with Doug Hubbard, author of "How to Measure Anything," about why people so often believe things are impossible to quantify like "innovation" or "quality of life." For example, because people often have a deep misunderstanding of the meaning of probability. Or because they're reluctant to violate "sacred taboos" by putting a number on something like the value of human life. Or because it feels vulgar to "reduce" important things to a number. Doug explains how he responds to these objections and others.

Doug's Pick: "Innumeracy" by John Allen Paulos

Doug's 2nd Pick: "Decision Traps" by J. Edward Russo and Paul J.H. Shoemaker

Doug's Book: "How to Meassure Anything"

Edited by Brent Silk

Music by Miracles of Modern Science

 

Full Transcripts 

Reader Comments (11)

Can't measure position and velocity, or time and frequency with high accuracy at the same time.
November 16, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterMax
Try measuring the IQ of different ethnic groups these days and see what happens.
November 18, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterMax
Really Smart Stuff. Not sure about the strict mathematical probability (frequency), but as a common sense probability, we know that there is less than about a .02% that our sandwich is poisoned, or else we would not eat it.

Also, Doug's estimate of $11M for a human life seems a bit high. The 2015 US Census puts average income at $56,516 annually. If we assume the average person puts in 40 years of work, and then also multiply by a factor of three to represent all the sleep time and recreation time people enjoy as well, we get $6,782,000. This may seem "vulgar", but lawyers do this all the time in wrongful death lawsuits where someone dies due to an accident or negligence. Of course, some people may dislike lawyers.
November 20, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJameson
Oh, great, your article gives me useful information and a fresh perspective on the subject.
November 20, 2017 | Unregistered Commenterabc ya
Love to have the citation for the Kahneman reference regarding naivety and inference, I think it was.
November 22, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJason Steere
Can't measure position and velocity, or time and frequency with high accuracy at the same time.
November 29, 2017 | Unregistered Commenterhappy wheels
I'm having troubles downloading the podcasts.
The download keeps stuck at 530kb. It has always being a little hard to download, it would use far less speed than available and would crash often, but was manageable, now it simply stops.
Maybe it has something to do with me being in Brazil, yet I believe it shouldn't.
Can you please check this out?
I really enjoy your work and don't want to miss it.
December 1, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterYan
Actually, using the average USA life expectancy of 78.74 instead of an average productive work life of 40 years, multiplying this by a $56,516 average annual income, and multiplying again by a factor of three to represent all the sleep time and recreation time people enjoy as well, we get $13,350,000, much closer to Doug's $11M. So Doug's estimate seems correct.
December 9, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJameson
@Jason Steere I could be wrong, but I think the Kahneman paper he was talking about was this paper:

Kahneman, Daniel; Amos Tversky (1973). "On the psychology of prediction". Psychological Review. 80: 237–251. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.395.3759&rep=rep1&type=pdf

It appears to be about base rate neglect.
January 3, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermvz
Look at how long it took to measure the probabilLities of light c and how did Suppenman
get here without (SUPERHUMAN) Kryptonite? He didn't just appear out of "RATIONALITY" or
Mathematical Methods!

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3399982/

.*.,quantum operators.Planck hidden aggregate.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/351/6277/aab4113

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Barlow_(Intelligence_analyst)
.

24:53
AMBASSADOR LEE EMIL WANTA INTERVIEW

Underground Knowledge — A discussion group discussion
What is the inter.rest on the measurement of light?
Key Assumptions of the Transcension Hypothesis: Do Advanced Civilizations Leave Our Universe?
(*.*)
24:23
Box.Charts...financing.subjects.forecasted two years prior to production! (The reason to assess how investment should account to ITSdebt.model...)

THE TAGLINE FOR THIS WEBSITE IS THE BEST (C)HINGE IN REALITY, BORDERLANDS BETWEEN REASON AND NONSENSE#1!!! Neuroscience for Kids - Two Point Discrimination
..^
Just over 200 base-2 notations from the Planck scale render a highly-integrated model of the universe.
https://bblu.org/

~*.*~
Cyd Charisse (1953) The Band Wagon [Two-Faced Woman Outtake]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nX1xbgZrhE4
Which stature is the "Freudian.slip"?
February 12, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterN.J.
+Max
"Try measuring the IQ of different ethnic groups these days and see what happens."


But why? What do want to prove?? How does that benefit anyone??? And what is an IQ Test even measuring anyways???? Western assimilation?
November 28, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterErnesto

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